Bitcoin: wave count predicts a rise above its margin

BTC is in an extended third cycle wave, which could end between $ 25,500 and $ 26,400.

Bitcoin is likely in a fourth wave triangle.

A decline below $ 17,569 would reject this scenario.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is likely still in a bullish momentum, which could push it up to new highs.

That said, Bitcoin may go through a short-term correction first before rising.

Bitcoin expansion targets $ 26,000

The daily chart suggests that BTC started a bullish impulse (in white below) after the March 13 low, and is currently in a wave in the extended third cycle. The wave count for this cycle is shown in blue, and BTC is currently in wave five.

At first it seemed to be a large corrective structure. That said, the lack of rejects near the date high and the consolidation that followed increases the possibility that this is more of a bullish push.

The most plausible area for the end of Wave 5 (in blue) is between $ 25,500 and $ 26,300. This goal is achieved by using a combination of fibonacci extensions:

Fibonacci extension 3.61 of wave 1 cycle (blank)
Wave 1 fibonacci extension 4.61 (in blue)
Fibonacci extension of waves 1 to 3 (in blue).

Further observation of wave 3 reveals a complete sub-wave count (in orange), which increases the possibility that this count is correct.

In addition, sub-wave 5 corresponds exactly to level 0.618 of sub-waves 1 to 3. This is a very common ratio when sub-wave 3 is extended.

So while wave 3 (in blue) is probably over, it is not yet clear if BTC is now in wave 4, or if it has already completed it.

Triangle figure or new impetus?

A possible short-term count suggests that BTC has already started its wave 5 (in blue).

The sub-wave count is shown in orange and shows that BTC has completed sub-wave 2. It is now rising within what is probably sub-wave 3. This rise appears impulsive (in green), which supports this possibility.

However, there is a problem with this count. Wave 3 lasted over two months, while in this case Wave 4 is about a week long (shown in red). This is a very unusual ratio between an upward movement and a correction.

Either way, a decline below the low of Subwave 2, at 17,569, would reject this wave count.